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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its third straight monthly decline in expectations. Consumers turned negative on current business conditions for the first time since September 2024 and lifted inflation expectations to 6.1%.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, down from 88.6 in August, according to a report published September 29, 2026, by Hardware Retailing citing the Conference Board’s preliminary results. The decline was broad-based: consumers’ assessment of current conditions dropped sharply, their short-term outlook weakened for a third consecutive month, and inflation expectations rose to 6.1% for the year ahead.
The survey, conducted between September 1 and 23, 2026, captured consumer sentiment during a period that included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell by 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index, based on the short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, declined by 5.9 points to 63.6 — its third consecutive monthly drop.
Within the present-situation measures, net views of current business conditions — the share of consumers calling conditions “good” minus those calling them “bad” — declined by 3.4 percentage points to -1.9%. The Conference Board attributed the fall largely to more consumers describing business conditions as “bad.” The labor market differential, which subtracts the share saying jobs are “hard to get” from the share saying jobs are “plentiful,” retreated by 2.5 percentage points to +1.7%.
Expectations weakened across all three of that index’s components. Net expectations for business conditions dipped by 3.2 percentage points to -9.5%; net labor market expectations fell 3.1 percentage points to -14.4%; and net household income expectations declined 3.0 percentage points, though they stayed positive at +2.5%. Average 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, the median to 5.1%, and the share of consumers anticipating higher interest rates over the next 12 months jumped 5.2 percentage points to 68.4%.
What Softer Confidence Signals for Spending
Consumer confidence is watched closely as a forward indicator of household spending, which drives the majority of U.S. economic activity. A third consecutive decline in the Expectations Index, combined with negative net views of current business conditions for the first time since September 2024, suggests households are growing more cautious about both the present economy and the months ahead.
The figures carry particular weight for retailers — the audience of the trade publication reporting the data — because weakening confidence can translate into deferred purchases of discretionary and big-ticket home improvement goods. Rising inflation and interest-rate expectations add pressure: consumers who expect higher borrowing costs and prices may pull back further, and the report noted that while consumers still largely expected stock prices to rise over the next 12 months, that optimism moderated in September.
The declines were also broad demographically. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence trended downward across all age groups and nearly all income groups, with households earning $125,000-$149,000 reporting the greatest six-month decline — a signal that softening sentiment is not confined to lower-income consumers.
Prior Months of Gradual Softening
: “Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said the September drop followed two earlier months of weakening sentiment. “The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening,” Peterson said. “The Present Situation Index fell sharply, while the Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory.”
The report arrives against a mixed economic backdrop. A related Hardware Retailing item notes that retail sales rose modestly in August, marking the 11th consecutive month of gains — a contrast between still-growing actual spending and deteriorating sentiment. The September survey window also coincided with a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions, both of which can weigh on household outlooks, though the Conference Board did not quantify their effect.
What the Survey Cannot Yet Tell Us
Several points remain unclear. The Conference Board’s September figures are labeled preliminary results and are based on responses gathered before September 23, meaning they do not capture any shifts in sentiment during the final week of the month. The report does not establish how much of the decline was driven specifically by the rate hike or geopolitical events versus broader economic conditions, and it does not predict how the data will translate into actual consumer spending in the fourth quarter.
It is also unclear whether the slide will continue. Prior months softened gradually before September’s sharper fall, but the Conference Board’s commentary does not project October’s reading. The divergence between 11 straight months of retail sales gains and weakening confidence leaves open the question of which measure better reflects household behavior going forward.
October Data and Holiday Outlook
The Conference Board will release its October Consumer Confidence report in late October, which will show whether September’s decline was a one-month deterioration or the continuation of a longer slide. Final September figures, incorporating responses from the full month, may also revise the preliminary numbers.
Analysts and retailers will watch upcoming data alongside the confidence index — including monthly retail sales, inflation readings, and the pace of hiring — to gauge whether weakening sentiment curbs spending heading into the holiday shopping season, typically the most important stretch of the year for consumer-facing businesses.
Key Questions
How much did consumer confidence fall in September?
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 in September 2026, from 88.6 in August. The Present Situation Index dropped 7.9 points to 109.3, and the Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6.
Why did confidence decline?
The Conference Board did not assign a single cause. The September 1-23 survey window included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions, and consumers reported worsening views of current business conditions, the labor market outlook, and inflation.
What are consumers’ inflation expectations?
Average 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage points in September to 6.1%, with the median at 5.1%. The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next year jumped 5.2 percentage points to 68.4%.
Are the September figures final?
No. The figures are preliminary results based on survey responses collected September 1-23, 2026, and do not capture sentiment from the final week of the month.
Does falling confidence mean spending will drop?
Not necessarily, and the report does not make that prediction. Retail sales rose for an strong>11th consecutive month in August even as confidence softened. Confidence is a forward-looking indicator, and its effect on actual spending remains to be seen.
Source: rss
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